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in terms of the MAGNITUDE of the Japanese Market Bubble – and, how that compares with the United States – here’s what you need to know:
From 1990 through 2003…the Nikkei fell 80% as Japan’s entire economy was completely turned upside down – but, one thing that most people don’t mention is the EXACT MAGNITUDE of JUST how big that bubble was, before it popped.
For example – it was reported that, from 1956 to 1986, “land prices increased 5000%… even though consumer prices only doubled in that time.” Share prices also increased “3x faster than corporate profits,” by 1990… “total Japanese property market was valued at over 2,000 trillion yen, which was roughly 4x the real estate value of the entire United States”…and, the most shocking from ALL of this: “In 1989 the P/E ratio on the Nikkei was 60x trailing 12 month earnings.”
Just for comparison…the PE Ratio of the SP500 is currently around 20…which, is is higher than it’s average of 16…but, not unreasonably high when compared throughout history.
Just to put that in perspective….when you view this in comparison to the 2001 Dot Com bubble…Japan traded at a value that was nearly 3x HIGHER, where “a $100,000 investment in Japanese large cap stocks in 1970 would have turned into $5.7 million by 1989, and $100,000 in small caps would have grown to $18.3 million dollars.” If we applied the same metrics today, with the US Market…the SP500 would be trading at nearly 9000…so, that should give you a good understanding that this bubble was MASSIVE to the point where – yeah, no wonder it still hasn’t recovered after 30 years.
As for my OWN thoughts – here’s the thing: MOST LIKELY, if we DO have a “lost decade” where the stock market is trading at the same price as today, 10 YEARS FROM NOW…realistically, it’s not going to be the same price, consistently, the entire time. For example, it’s not like the SP500 would just trade between 3900 and 4200 for 10 years and that’s it…that’s NEVER happened, and most likely, there’s going to be a lot of ups and downs along the way.
It’s also HIGHLY unrealistic to assume that you’re just going to make ONE single investment, at one point in time…and then NOTHING ever again…and, sure, I’ll admit – IF you did that, and never invested afterwards…you might very well lose money. But, again – chances are, investing is going to be something you CONSISTENTLY do year after year…and that’s how you can make sure you stay profitable.
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